Dear Dairy

Event 412 broke the recent winning streak. The headline call was wrong — but underneath it, dairy markets are becoming more divided. Dear Dairy, Sometimes the useful part of a forecast is getting it right. Sometimes it is understanding why it was wrong. Ahead of GDT Event 412, 35 people voted in the Dear Dairy poll: 34% expected a rise above 2.5% 54% expected a rise between 0% and 2.5% 11% expected a decline between 0% and 2.5% 0% expected a decline greater than 2.5% That mea

86% of Dear Dairy respondents expected the market to rise. GDT Event 411 delivered another positive result, but strong powders and weak fats and cheese are creating a much more complicated picture for Q4. Global dairy markets entered September with another positive GDT result. Global Dairy Trade Event 411 finished 0.9% higher, extending the current sequence to four consecutive positive full Trading Events. The average winning price reached USD 3,910 per metric tonne, with app

Thought it a good time for my "quarterly review". GDT 410 moved higher, but the real story sits underneath the index: powders strengthened, fats diverged, Europe tightened, and Q4 risk is beginning to change. There are moments in commodity markets when the headline moves first. And there are moments when the market changes underneath the headline before anyone is ready to admit it. I think we may be somewhere in between. For much of this summer, European dairy has felt strang